Newcastle United


0 : 0

Burnley


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

31%

Draw

27%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

61%

Draw

24%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.7 0.8
Diff 0.6 -0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 31% 27% 42%
Observed-shots-based 61% 24% 15%
Diff 30% -3% -27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 64 8 36 21
Defence 64 79 36 92
Overall 70 27 30 73


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek