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Home Goals
1.1
Home win
31%
Draw
27%
Away win
42%
Away Goals
1.4
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.7
Home win
61%
Draw
24%
Away win
15%
Away Goals
0.8
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.7 | 0.8 |
Diff | 0.6 | -0.6 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 31% | 27% | 42% |
Observed-shots-based | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Diff | 30% | -3% | -27% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 64 | 8 | 36 | 21 | |
Defence | 64 | 79 | 36 | 92 | |
Overall | 70 | 27 | 30 | 73 |
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