The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

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	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	1.4	2.6
Observed-shots-based	0.5	4.1
Diff	-0.9	1.5

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	20%	18%	62%
Observed-shots-based	1%	3%	93%
Diff	-19%	-14%	30%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	27	28		73	86
Defence	27	14		73	72
Overall	19	10		81	90