Leganés


1 : 1

Alavés


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

47%

Draw

29%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

63%

Draw

26%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.5 0.5
Diff 0.2 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 29% 25%
Observed-shots-based 63% 26% 11%
Diff 17% -3% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 55 37 40 75
Defence 60 25 45 63
Overall 61 24 39 76


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