Norwich City


1 : 0

Leicester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

27%

Draw

23%

Away win

50%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

13%

Draw

21%

Away win

65%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.8
Observed-shots-based 0.8 1.9
Diff -0.5 0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 23% 50%
Observed-shots-based 13% 21% 65%
Diff -13% -2% 15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 39 62 53 6
Defence 47 94 61 38
Overall 40 92 60 8


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