Fortuna Düsseldorf


3 : 3

Hertha BSC


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

37%

Draw

25%

Away win

38%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

14%

Draw

18%

Away win

68%

Away Goals

2.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.2 2.5
Diff -0.2 1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 25% 38%
Observed-shots-based 14% 18% 68%
Diff -23% -7% 30%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 93 72 67
Defence 28 33 54 7
Overall 30 77 70 23


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