VfL Wolfsburg


4 : 0

1. FSV Mainz 05


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

53%

Draw

24%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

75%

Draw

16%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.4 1.0
Diff 0.6 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 24% 23%
Observed-shots-based 75% 16% 9%
Diff 21% -7% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 65 90 48 18
Defence 52 82 35 10
Overall 63 96 37 4


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