Real Valladolid


2 : 1

Espanyol


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

40%

Draw

27%

Away win

34%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

33%

Draw

32%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.2
Diff -0.1 -0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 40% 27% 34%
Observed-shots-based 33% 32% 36%
Diff -7% 5% 2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 78 53 43
Defence 47 57 52 22
Overall 47 78 53 22


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