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2 : 1

Athletic de Bilbao


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

37%

Draw

29%

Away win

34%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

58%

Draw

26%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.5 0.8
Diff 0.4 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 29% 34%
Observed-shots-based 58% 26% 15%
Diff 21% -3% -19%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 63 69 44 60
Defence 56 40 37 31
Overall 63 58 37 42


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