Dijon


1 : 1

Monaco


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

27%

Draw

25%

Away win

49%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

28%

Draw

27%

Away win

45%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.6
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.6
Diff 0.1 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 25% 49%
Observed-shots-based 28% 27% 45%
Diff 1% 3% -4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 45 50 33
Defence 50 67 47 55
Overall 53 59 47 41


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