Crystal Palace


1 : 0

Newcastle United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

49%

Draw

27%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

81%

Draw

16%

Away win

3%

Away Goals

0.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.2
Diff 0.5 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 49% 27% 24%
Observed-shots-based 81% 16% 3%
Diff 32% -11% -21%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 61 27 28 40
Defence 72 60 39 73
Overall 71 33 29 67


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek