Chelsea


2 : 1

Tottenham Hotspur


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

55%

Draw

23%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

75%

Draw

20%

Away win

5%

Away Goals

0.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.7 0.3
Diff -0.1 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 55% 23% 22%
Observed-shots-based 75% 20% 5%
Diff 20% -4% -17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 49 63 29 85
Defence 71 15 51 37
Overall 62 41 38 59


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