Bologna


1 : 1

Udinese


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

57%

Draw

23%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

59%

Draw

26%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.6 0.8
Diff -0.2 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 57% 23% 20%
Observed-shots-based 59% 26% 15%
Diff 2% 3% -5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 33 45 63
Defence 55 37 54 67
Overall 50 28 50 72


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek