Barcelona


5 : 0

Eibar


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

68%

Draw

19%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.2

Home win

86%

Draw

9%

Away win

4%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.2 0.9
Observed-shots-based 3.2 0.8
Diff 0.9 -0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 68% 19% 13%
Observed-shots-based 86% 9% 4%
Diff 19% -10% -9%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 68 89 50 20
Defence 50 80 32 11
Overall 66 94 34 6


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek