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Home Goals
1.4
Home win
46%
Draw
27%
Away win
26%
Away Goals
1.0
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.3
Home win
15%
Draw
54%
Away win
31%
Away Goals
0.5
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Diff | -1.1 | -0.5 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 46% | 27% | 26% |
Observed-shots-based | 15% | 54% | 31% |
Diff | -31% | 27% | 4% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 20 | 87 | 36 | 31 | |
Defence | 64 | 69 | 80 | 13 | |
Overall | 37 | 92 | 63 | 8 |
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