FC Bayern München


3 : 2

SC Paderborn


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

3.6

Home win

86%

Draw

9%

Away win

5%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

64%

Draw

20%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 3.6 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.5 1.4
Diff -1.1 0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 86% 9% 5%
Observed-shots-based 64% 20% 16%
Diff -22% 11% 10%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 33 65 64 75
Defence 36 25 67 35
Overall 29 48 71 52


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