1. FSV Mainz 05


0 : 0

FC Schalke 04


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

41%

Draw

25%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

68%

Draw

20%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.3
Observed-shots-based 2.0 0.8
Diff 0.5 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 41% 25% 33%
Observed-shots-based 68% 20% 11%
Diff 27% -5% -22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 62 5 37 22
Defence 63 78 38 95
Overall 68 21 32 79


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