The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

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	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	2.5	0.8
Observed-shots-based	2.5	0.3
Diff	0.0	-0.5

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	76%	15%	9%
Observed-shots-based	88%	10%	2%
Diff	12%	-5%	-7%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	51	39		35	37
Defence	65	63		49	61
Overall	58	46		42	54