Athletic de Bilbao


0 : 1

Osasuna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

45%

Draw

28%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.7

Home win

30%

Draw

38%

Away win

32%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 0.7 0.7
Diff -0.6 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 45% 28% 27%
Observed-shots-based 30% 38% 32%
Diff -15% 10% 5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 35 23 45 65
Defence 55 35 65 77
Overall 42 19 58 81


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