The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	1.3	1.1
Observed-shots-based	0.8	0.5
Diff	-0.5	-0.6

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	42%	27%	31%
Observed-shots-based	40%	39%	20%
Diff	-2%	12%	-10%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	37	21		34	28
Defence	66	72		63	79
Overall	52	40		48	60