Southampton


1 : 2

Burnley


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

50%

Draw

24%

Away win

26%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

35%

Draw

32%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.0 1.0
Diff -0.6 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 24% 26%
Observed-shots-based 35% 32% 33%
Diff -15% 8% 7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 36 52 47 85
Defence 53 15 64 48
Overall 41 22 59 78


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