Mallorca


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Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

43%

Draw

27%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

75%

Draw

17%

Away win

8%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.9
Diff 0.9 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 43% 27% 30%
Observed-shots-based 75% 17% 8%
Diff 32% -10% -22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 73 12 46 18
Defence 54 82 27 88
Overall 70 39 30 61


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