1899 Hoffenheim


2 : 3

VfL Wolfsburg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

47%

Draw

24%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.8

Home win

37%

Draw

23%

Away win

40%

Away Goals

2.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.3
Observed-shots-based 2.8 2.9
Diff 1.1 1.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 24% 29%
Observed-shots-based 37% 23% 40%
Diff -10% -1% 10%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 74 27 83 56
Defence 17 44 26 73
Overall 43 30 57 70


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