Genoa


1 : 0

Cagliari


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

53%

Draw

23%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

50%

Draw

27%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.5 1.0
Diff -0.3 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 23% 24%
Observed-shots-based 50% 27% 23%
Diff -3% 4% -0%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 44 38 47 18
Defence 53 82 56 62
Overall 47 64 53 36


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