FC Bayern München


0 : 0

RB Leipzig


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

62%

Draw

19%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

62%

Draw

22%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.3 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.0 1.0
Diff -0.4 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 62% 19% 19%
Observed-shots-based 62% 22% 16%
Diff 0% 3% -3%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 44 5 45 17
Defence 55 83 56 95
Overall 48 27 52 73


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