Real Valladolid


1 : 1

Villarreal


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

31%

Draw

24%

Away win

45%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.5

Home win

17%

Draw

35%

Away win

48%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.6
Observed-shots-based 0.5 1.0
Diff -0.8 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 31% 24% 45%
Observed-shots-based 17% 35% 48%
Diff -14% 10% 4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 29 75 35 54
Defence 65 46 71 25
Overall 47 66 53 34


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