Amiens


1 : 2

Monaco


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

29%

Draw

26%

Away win

45%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.5

Home win

14%

Draw

29%

Away win

56%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.4
Observed-shots-based 0.5 1.2
Diff -0.6 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 29% 26% 45%
Observed-shots-based 14% 29% 56%
Diff -14% 3% 11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 34 75 46 76
Defence 54 24 66 25
Overall 42 40 58 60


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