Hertha BSC


1 : 3

1. FSV Mainz 05


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

47%

Draw

24%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

10%

Draw

18%

Away win

73%

Away Goals

2.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.0 2.2
Diff -0.7 1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 24% 29%
Observed-shots-based 10% 18% 73%
Diff -37% -7% 44%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 35 56 75 75
Defence 25 25 65 44
Overall 22 32 78 68


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