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Eibar


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

38%

Draw

28%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

52%

Draw

40%

Away win

8%

Away Goals

0.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.8 0.2
Diff -0.4 -1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 38% 28% 35%
Observed-shots-based 52% 40% 8%
Diff 15% 12% -27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 41 88 22 91
Defence 78 9 59 12
Overall 62 66 38 34


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