Montpellier


1 : 1

Metz


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

52%

Draw

28%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

0.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.7

Home win

11%

Draw

23%

Away win

67%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 0.7
Observed-shots-based 0.7 1.7
Diff -0.7 1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 52% 28% 20%
Observed-shots-based 11% 23% 67%
Diff -42% -5% 47%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 32 68 76 28
Defence 24 72 68 32
Overall 20 78 80 22


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