Nice


2 : 1

Lyon


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

27%

Draw

25%

Away win

48%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

32%

Draw

32%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.6
Observed-shots-based 1.5 1.5
Diff 0.3 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 25% 48%
Observed-shots-based 32% 32% 36%
Diff 5% 7% -12%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 59 70 50 30
Defence 50 70 41 30
Overall 58 79 42 21


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