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Home Goals
1.1
Home win
41%
Draw
30%
Away win
29%
Away Goals
0.9
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.7
Home win
12%
Draw
24%
Away win
64%
Away Goals
1.6
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.7 | 1.6 |
Diff | -0.4 | 0.7 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Observed-shots-based | 12% | 24% | 64% |
Diff | -29% | -6% | 35% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 39 | 24 | 71 | 66 | |
Defence | 29 | 34 | 61 | 76 | |
Overall | 27 | 20 | 73 | 80 |
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