1. FC Köln


4 : 0

SC Freiburg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

53%

Draw

22%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.2

Home win

86%

Draw

9%

Away win

4%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.0 1.3
Observed-shots-based 3.2 0.9
Diff 1.2 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 22% 25%
Observed-shots-based 86% 9% 4%
Diff 32% -12% -21%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 72 69 39 20
Defence 61 80 28 31
Overall 75 81 25 19


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