Borussia Dortmund


5 : 0

1. FC Union Berlin


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

65%

Draw

19%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

88%

Draw

10%

Away win

2%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.2 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.5 0.5
Diff 0.3 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 65% 19% 16%
Observed-shots-based 88% 10% 2%
Diff 24% -10% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 58 97 35 30
Defence 65 70 42 3
Overall 65 98 35 2


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