Strasbourg


1 : 2

Lille


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

34%

Draw

27%

Away win

39%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

22%

Draw

27%

Away win

51%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.1 1.6
Diff -0.1 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 34% 27% 39%
Observed-shots-based 22% 27% 51%
Diff -12% 0% 12%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 49 59 65
Defence 41 35 52 51
Overall 42 37 58 63


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