Real Madrid


1 : 0

Atlético Madrid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

50%

Draw

25%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

63%

Draw

29%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.2 0.3
Diff -0.4 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 25% 25%
Observed-shots-based 63% 29% 9%
Diff 13% 4% -16%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 43 44 29 35
Defence 71 65 57 56
Overall 57 55 43 45


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