The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	2.5	1.0
Observed-shots-based	4.2	0.7
Diff	1.7	-0.3

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	69%	17%	14%
Observed-shots-based	92%	3%	1%
Diff	23%	-14%	-13%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	77	25		41	24
Defence	59	76		23	75
Overall	78	40		22	60