Atlético Madrid


0 : 0

Leganés


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

64%

Draw

23%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

48%

Draw

35%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 0.6
Observed-shots-based 1.0 0.5
Diff -0.7 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 64% 23% 13%
Observed-shots-based 48% 35% 17%
Diff -16% 12% 4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 34 17 46 30
Defence 54 70 66 83
Overall 38 35 62 65


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