Valencia


2 : 0

Barcelona


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

33%

Draw

23%

Away win

44%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

36%

Draw

29%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.8
Observed-shots-based 1.4 1.4
Diff -0.1 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 23% 44%
Observed-shots-based 36% 29% 35%
Diff 3% 6% -9%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 50 76 43 11
Defence 57 89 50 24
Overall 54 93 46 7


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