SPAL


1 : 3

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

33%

Draw

26%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

36%

Draw

24%

Away win

40%

Away Goals

2.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.9 2.0
Diff 0.7 0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 26% 42%
Observed-shots-based 36% 24% 40%
Diff 3% -2% -2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 67 23 63 77
Defence 37 23 33 77
Overall 52 14 48 86


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