Eintracht Frankfurt


2 : 0

RB Leipzig


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

33%

Draw

23%

Away win

44%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

20%

Draw

24%

Away win

55%

Away Goals

1.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.8
Observed-shots-based 1.1 1.8
Diff -0.5 0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 23% 44%
Observed-shots-based 20% 24% 55%
Diff -13% 2% 11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 40 83 51 7
Defence 49 93 60 17
Overall 42 96 58 4


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