Nice


1 : 1

Rennes


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

37%

Draw

27%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

25%

Draw

20%

Away win

55%

Away Goals

2.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.9 2.6
Diff 0.6 1.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 27% 36%
Observed-shots-based 25% 20% 55%
Diff -12% -7% 18%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 65 26 77 14
Defence 23 86 35 74
Overall 38 65 62 35


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