Manchester United


0 : 2

Burnley


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

64%

Draw

20%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

77%

Draw

15%

Away win

8%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.5 0.8
Diff 0.5 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 64% 20% 16%
Observed-shots-based 77% 15% 8%
Diff 13% -5% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 59 3 48 90
Defence 52 10 41 97
Overall 60 1 40 99


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