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Home Goals
1.8
Home win
61%
Draw
23%
Away win
17%
Away Goals
0.8
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.5
Home win
37%
Draw
28%
Away win
36%
Away Goals
1.5
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Diff | -0.3 | 0.6 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 61% | 23% | 17% |
Observed-shots-based | 37% | 28% | 36% |
Diff | -24% | 5% | 19% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 44 | 67 | 69 | 72 | |
Defence | 31 | 28 | 56 | 33 | |
Overall | 34 | 49 | 66 | 51 |
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