SC Paderborn


1 : 4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

31%

Draw

22%

Away win

47%

Away Goals

1.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

37%

Draw

26%

Away win

37%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.9
Observed-shots-based 1.6 1.6
Diff 0.1 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 31% 22% 47%
Observed-shots-based 37% 26% 37%
Diff 6% 4% -10%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 32 44 97
Defence 56 3 47 68
Overall 56 3 44 97


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