Real Betis


3 : 0

Real Sociedad


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

38%

Draw

26%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

59%

Draw

27%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.4 0.5
Diff 0.0 -0.8

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 38% 26% 36%
Observed-shots-based 59% 27% 13%
Diff 21% 2% -23%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 51 90 29 28
Defence 71 72 49 10
Overall 65 94 35 6


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