Sassuolo


2 : 1

Torino


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

45%

Draw

25%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

54%

Draw

27%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.5 0.8
Diff -0.1 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 45% 25% 30%
Observed-shots-based 54% 27% 19%
Diff 9% 2% -11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 50 68 41 60
Defence 59 40 50 32
Overall 56 60 44 40


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