Osasuna


0 : 0

Real Valladolid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

55%

Draw

24%

Away win

21%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

85%

Draw

12%

Away win

3%

Away Goals

0.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.3
Diff 0.6 -0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 55% 24% 21%
Observed-shots-based 85% 12% 3%
Diff 30% -12% -18%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 63 4 31 36
Defence 69 64 37 96
Overall 72 9 28 91


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek