1899 Hoffenheim


1 : 2

Eintracht Frankfurt


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

48%

Draw

22%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

25%

Draw

27%

Away win

48%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 1.5
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.6
Diff -0.7 0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 48% 22% 30%
Observed-shots-based 25% 27% 48%
Diff -23% 5% 17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 35 46 54 66
Defence 46 34 65 54
Overall 36 34 64 66


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