1. FSV Mainz 05


1 : 2

SC Freiburg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

50%

Draw

23%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

49%

Draw

23%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.3
Observed-shots-based 2.0 1.5
Diff 0.2 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 23% 27%
Observed-shots-based 49% 23% 27%
Diff -1% 0% 0%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 55 25 57 69
Defence 43 31 45 75
Overall 49 19 51 81


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